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Trading with Strategy

by Nicholas H. Bang

Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint. ACM does not manage accounts, nor does it give market advice, that is the job of money managers and introducing brokers. As market professionals, we can however point the novice in the right direction and indicate what are correct trading tactics and considerations and what is total nonsense.

Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very �fast market� which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders� timing will be off. Don�t expect to generate returns on every trade.

Let�s enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:

Trade with money you can afford to lose:

Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are �involved with your money� the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.

Identify the state of the market:

What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that�s forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.

Determine what time frame you�re trading on:

Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind�s eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you�ll be �scalping� (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you�re looking at. If you trade many times a day, there�s no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you�ll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.

Time your trade:

You can be right about a potential market movement but be too early or too late when you enter the trade. Timing considerations are twofold, an expected market figure like CPI, retail sales or a federal reserve decision can consolidate a movement that�s already underway. Timing your move means knowing what�s expected and taking into account all considerations before trading. Technical analysis can help you identify when and at what price a move may occur. We will look at technical analysis in more detail later.

If in doubt, stay out:

If you�re unsure about a trade and find you�re hesitating, stay on the sidelines.

Trade logical transaction sizes:

Margin trading allows the fx trader a very large amount of leverage, trading at full margin capacity (in ACM�s case 1% or 0.5%) can make for some very large profits or losses on an account. Scaling your trades so that you may re-enter the market or make transactions on other currencies is generally wiser. In short, don�t trade amounts that can potentially wipe you out and don�t put all your eggs in one basket. ACM offers the same rates regardless of transaction sizes so a customer has nothing to lose by starting small.

Gauge market sentiment:

Market sentiment is what most of the market is perceived to be feeling about the market and therefore what it is doing or will do. This is basically about trend. You may have heard the term �the trend is your friend�, this basically means that if you�re in the right direction with a strong trend you will make successful trades. This of course is very simplistic, a trend is capable of reversal at any time. Technical and fundamental data can indicate however if the trend has begun long ago and if it is strong or weak.

Market expectation:

Market expectation relates to what most people are expecting as far as upcoming news is concerned. If people are expecting an interest rate to rise and it does, then there usually will not be much of a movement because the information will already have been �discounted� by the market, alternatively if the adverse happens, markets will usually react violently.

Use what other traders use:

In a perfect world, every trader would be looking at a 14 day RSI and making trading decisions based on that. If that was the case, when RSI would go under the 30 level, everyone would buy and by consequence the price would rise. Needless to say, the world is not perfect and not all market participants follow the same technical indicators, draw the same trendlines and identify the same support & resistance levels. The great diversity of opinions and techniques used translates directly into price diversity. Traders however have a tendency to use a limited variety of technical tools. The most common are 9 and 14 day RSI, obvious trendlines and support levels, fibonnacci retracement, MACD and 9, 20 & 40 day exponential moving averages. The closer you get to what most traders are looking at, the more precise your estimations will be. The reason for this is simple arithmetic, larger numbers of buyers than sellers at a certain price will move the market up from that price and vice-versa.

Nicholas H. Bang http://www.ac-markets.com/

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Speculators are active in the FX markets, as they are attracted to the opportunities that volatile and changing market conditions create. A multitude of economic forces impact the world�s currencies. Some of the forces at work include interest rate differentials, domestic money supply growth, comparative rates of inflation, central bank intervention and political stability. In times of global uncertainty, some currencies may benefit from perceived �flight-to-safety� status. Or, if one country�s economic outlook is perceived as strong by market forces, its currency may be firmer than another country�s currency, where economic or political conditions are viewed with caution.

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The Division of Trading and Markets (now Division of Clearing and Intermediary Oversight, or DCIO) issued an advisory in 2002 concerning foreign currency trading by retail customers (PDF). The advisory affirms that off-exchange trading of foreign currency futures and options contracts with retail customers by a counterparty that is not a regulated financial entity as set forth in the CFMA is unlawful. The advisory further states that, if there is a lawful counterparty to the transaction, such as a person registered as a futures commission merchant, the persons acting as intermediaries to such a transaction, that is, in the manner of an introducing broker, commodity trading advisor or commodity pool operator, would not need to register under the CEA if that is their only involvement in futures or option transactions.

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Leverage is something that is both great when it comes to the Forex and possibly dangerous. Trading currencies offers a high level of leverage. Those who don't have a lot of money to begin with can use leverage to gain more money. When used correctly, you can often do this in short amounts of time. Most people think however that this is something that can be done easily. Those who use leverage to their potential are often those with years of experience in trading. Some people tend to follow the myth that anyone will be able to easily use leverage to get rich fast. This is simply not true. You must be a trader with an excellent knowledge of the system in order to make leverage work to your maximum advantage.

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Most of these Forex trading systems are reactive (not proactive!!) by design. Like, if a stock or a commodity acts in a certain way, the system assumes that the stock or a commodity will continue to act that way. It generates this conclusion based on the formulas programmed into the system some �Black Boxes" also compute a large array of indicators in an attempt to increase confidence of an action recommendation. Most mechanical trading systems buy or sell breakouts. The stock market calls these traders momentum players. Their formulas assume a continuation of that movement. Should that movement fail to continue, the system will generate a loss, plus the commission cost.

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Where to Get Forex Training

by Jay Moncliff

Some of you may not even know what forex trading is. If you dont know this, you defiantly need some forex training. Forex stands for foreign exchange. Forex trading is basically the exchange of one countries currency for another countries currency. This is done simultaneously in hopes of gaining a profit.

You can get forex training from several different places. The first place you should get forex training from is online. There are many websites that offer free forex training. The forex training these websites offer is both reliable and accurate. The forex training on these websites often offers a free demo account to teach you how to trade without actually using any real money.

A second place to get Forex training is at your local college campus. Forex training courses at college are usually inexpensive and very thorough. The forex training courses offered should also include hands on experience with trading, to help you get the edge. You can also get some books on forex training or research forex training at your local library. The best place to get forex training is from someone who is already involved in forex trading. The forex training these individuals provide will be more realistic for you and give you different aspects of the forex trading game.

The forex training you get should first start with learning how the foreign trade market works. The trade market is always changing, so you need to understand it first. The second part of your forex training should be about risk control. You never want to invest more than you can afford. The right forex training should teach you how to cut your losses and have less risks of failure. Next, your forex training should teach you how to open and manage a forex trading account. But this should be done with a demo account. All forex training should be done this way first, before you try the real thing.

With all of this in mind, you should be able to find some good forex training. Learn the ropes of forex trading and take the time to learn it well. Be sure to try a demo forex trading account before you start a real account. With the right forex training, you will soon be on your way to a profitable way to supplement your income.

Jay Moncliff is the founder of http://www.forex-center.info a blog focusing on the forex training, resources and articles. This site provides detailed information on forex training. For more info visit his site at: forex training

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Spot FX transactions are usually based on currency rates quoted for two-day settlement (U.S. dollar versus Canadian dollar is traded for one-day settlement), in order In contrast to exchange transactions with real supply or real currency the participants of FOREX use trading with a margin deposit; i.e. marginal or leverage trading. In marginal trading, each transaction has two obligatory stages (they can be divided by period of time, which can be as long as you like): buying (selling) of currency at one price, and then selling (buying) it at another (or at the same) price. The first transaction is called opening the position, the second one, closing the position.Opening a position, a trader furnishes a deposit sum from 0.5 to 4 per cent of the credit line, granted for the transaction. So, in order to buy or sell 100,000 US dollars for Japanese yens, you will not need the whole sum, but only from 500 to 2000 US dollars depending on your policy of controlling risks. When the position is closed, the deposit sum returns, and calculation of profits or losses is done. All the profit or losses caused by the change of currency rates is credited on your account.
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Forex Knowledge
Through studies and research, a trader faces the task of making decisions to put this knowledge and system into practice. Then, how many traders can honestly say they can commit their ranch when the trade is suggested by their own system (given that trading is just a chance game) and let the profit run for weeks and months when their system tells them, and how many can manage to cut the loss as a routine process when the situation arise. It all sounds so easy when saying it but so difficult when doing it affecting real money in the market. I still do not sleep well when I am running position because even if the profits are running into a few hundred dollars and the system is telling you to carry on, there is no guarantee that the profit will turn into a yard or two in a month time, and it may even turn into a loss in a day or two when something unexpected happens. A painstaking process in real sense. The pain is not knowing what will happen in the future and in fear of losing. So at the end of the day, assuming one has decent trading system and market knowledge and decent info, it is ultimately how disciplined and how well that trader can take the pain of making right decisions at the right time that decides the outcome of the trades. Hence I call trading a mind game.

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Forex currency trading is a form of trading that offers a much greater potential for profitability at the same time the risks are much greater. Foreign currency trading is trading based on the always fluctuating currencies of other countries and how they interact with each other. Since there is no single dollar value, as fluctuations in one foreign currency affects all others, foreign currency trading is always exciting and always changing directions.

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The First Commercially Available Stock Trading "Robot" Which Earns $346.77 Per Week

Forming an Opinion Which Way Your Chosen Currency Might Go

By: Paul Dubsky

It is known that currencies react to a series of events such as inflation, interest rates, the state of the economy, and so forth. Because of this, it is vital to keep evaluating the various data, in order to form an opinion of the direction the currency of your choice might be heading.

Let us look at inflation and what it actually means. It is not about a particular model of a boat or a motorcycle, or certain services costing more money, which could be due to business enterprise success or failure, but about a widespread increase in prices throughout the country.

The rate of the inflation is based on a calculation of the average price change right across the economy. This is usually taken over a period of a year, hence the term annual inflation.

If there is an annual inflation rate for a particular month, say March this year of two per cent, it would mean that the prices in general were 2 per cent higher this March, than in the same month last year. Therefore, a blend of usually purchased items costing GBP100 last March, would be costing GBP102 this March.

To get the right reading, prices are taken all over the country in many sectors like the supermarkets, big stores, travel and insurance firms, etc.

There are other issues which set the level of inflation in the economy, but the fundamental causes of inflation have to do with the extent of demand in the economy, and can be narrowed down to how much cash can be spent in relation to what can be produced.

When demand shoots up above what can normally be produced in normal circumstances, this upward pressure creates a rise in costs and prices. When the demand is down, this creates a downward pressure in costs and prices. To keep inflation controlled, it is required to keep a balance between the demand and output situation. When you have an excessive demand to the supply position, you have a formula to generate an inflation climate. This is the reason for stability as a goal.

Lowering interest rates may well see a rise in output, but only for a limited period. If both demand and output have been strongly increased and then suddenly fall, it is called boom and bust.

It is also useful to keep an eye on the extent of the employment and unemployment figures. These can indicate the size of the economic movement as well as the weight of labour demand, increases of wages, and of prices.

Do not forget to take notice of the (CPI) Consumer Price Index which is an important measure of inflation.

Watch also the balance of trade situation. A trade surplus is a positive balance of trade, namely the exports are bigger than the imports, whereas a trade deficit is a negative balance of trade with imports being larger than exports.

There are a number of other points that can be looked into of course, but the main ones are important to keep in mind at all times.

A number of people follow the charts, and keep an eye on what the position was year after year.

There is no known magic formula as such, to positively determine the direction of any currency pair, but being informed as much as possible, goes a long way to narrow the odds against you.

Paul Dubsky is director of Foreign Currency Exchange Services Ltd. http://www.foreigncurrencyexchangeservices.co.uk/

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The consumer price index, or the CPI, is the last critical economic indicator in analyzing the Forex. The CPI is the measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods in 200 categories. This report can tell whether or not a country is making or losing money on their products and services. The exports that a country has are very important when looking at this indicator because the amount of exports can reflect a currency's weakness or its strength.

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Let�s see some more information about Spread. As with all financial products, forex quotes include terms like 'bid' and 'ask�'. The 'bid', in its simplest terms is the price at which a dealer is willing to buy (and clients can sell) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The 'ask' is the price at which dealer will sell (and clients can buy) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The difference between the bid and the ask price is referred to as the spread. The spread defines the trader�s cost, which can be recovered with a favorable currency move in the market. The value of a pip is determined by the pair of currencies being traded, the rate at which the currency pair is trading and the size of the position being traded.

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The bid/ask spread for EUR/USD should never exceed 3 to 4 pips to improve profiting from Forex trading. For an active trader profiting in Forex with a 2 pip transaction cost is highly preferable.

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