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Trading with Strategy

by Nicholas H. Bang

Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint. ACM does not manage accounts, nor does it give market advice, that is the job of money managers and introducing brokers. As market professionals, we can however point the novice in the right direction and indicate what are correct trading tactics and considerations and what is total nonsense.

Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very �fast market� which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders� timing will be off. Don�t expect to generate returns on every trade.

Let�s enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:

Trade with money you can afford to lose:

Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are �involved with your money� the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.

Identify the state of the market:

What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that�s forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.

Determine what time frame you�re trading on:

Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind�s eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you�ll be �scalping� (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you�re looking at. If you trade many times a day, there�s no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you�ll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.

Time your trade:

You can be right about a potential market movement but be too early or too late when you enter the trade. Timing considerations are twofold, an expected market figure like CPI, retail sales or a federal reserve decision can consolidate a movement that�s already underway. Timing your move means knowing what�s expected and taking into account all considerations before trading. Technical analysis can help you identify when and at what price a move may occur. We will look at technical analysis in more detail later.

If in doubt, stay out:

If you�re unsure about a trade and find you�re hesitating, stay on the sidelines.

Trade logical transaction sizes:

Margin trading allows the fx trader a very large amount of leverage, trading at full margin capacity (in ACM�s case 1% or 0.5%) can make for some very large profits or losses on an account. Scaling your trades so that you may re-enter the market or make transactions on other currencies is generally wiser. In short, don�t trade amounts that can potentially wipe you out and don�t put all your eggs in one basket. ACM offers the same rates regardless of transaction sizes so a customer has nothing to lose by starting small.

Gauge market sentiment:

Market sentiment is what most of the market is perceived to be feeling about the market and therefore what it is doing or will do. This is basically about trend. You may have heard the term �the trend is your friend�, this basically means that if you�re in the right direction with a strong trend you will make successful trades. This of course is very simplistic, a trend is capable of reversal at any time. Technical and fundamental data can indicate however if the trend has begun long ago and if it is strong or weak.

Market expectation:

Market expectation relates to what most people are expecting as far as upcoming news is concerned. If people are expecting an interest rate to rise and it does, then there usually will not be much of a movement because the information will already have been �discounted� by the market, alternatively if the adverse happens, markets will usually react violently.

Use what other traders use:

In a perfect world, every trader would be looking at a 14 day RSI and making trading decisions based on that. If that was the case, when RSI would go under the 30 level, everyone would buy and by consequence the price would rise. Needless to say, the world is not perfect and not all market participants follow the same technical indicators, draw the same trendlines and identify the same support & resistance levels. The great diversity of opinions and techniques used translates directly into price diversity. Traders however have a tendency to use a limited variety of technical tools. The most common are 9 and 14 day RSI, obvious trendlines and support levels, fibonnacci retracement, MACD and 9, 20 & 40 day exponential moving averages. The closer you get to what most traders are looking at, the more precise your estimations will be. The reason for this is simple arithmetic, larger numbers of buyers than sellers at a certain price will move the market up from that price and vice-versa.

Nicholas H. Bang http://www.ac-markets.com/

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Speculators are active in the FX markets, as they are attracted to the opportunities that volatile and changing market conditions create. A multitude of economic forces impact the world�s currencies. Some of the forces at work include interest rate differentials, domestic money supply growth, comparative rates of inflation, central bank intervention and political stability. In times of global uncertainty, some currencies may benefit from perceived �flight-to-safety� status. Or, if one country�s economic outlook is perceived as strong by market forces, its currency may be firmer than another country�s currency, where economic or political conditions are viewed with caution.

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The Division of Trading and Markets (now Division of Clearing and Intermediary Oversight, or DCIO) issued an advisory in 2002 concerning foreign currency trading by retail customers (PDF). The advisory affirms that off-exchange trading of foreign currency futures and options contracts with retail customers by a counterparty that is not a regulated financial entity as set forth in the CFMA is unlawful. The advisory further states that, if there is a lawful counterparty to the transaction, such as a person registered as a futures commission merchant, the persons acting as intermediaries to such a transaction, that is, in the manner of an introducing broker, commodity trading advisor or commodity pool operator, would not need to register under the CEA if that is their only involvement in futures or option transactions.

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Leverage is something that is both great when it comes to the Forex and possibly dangerous. Trading currencies offers a high level of leverage. Those who don't have a lot of money to begin with can use leverage to gain more money. When used correctly, you can often do this in short amounts of time. Most people think however that this is something that can be done easily. Those who use leverage to their potential are often those with years of experience in trading. Some people tend to follow the myth that anyone will be able to easily use leverage to get rich fast. This is simply not true. You must be a trader with an excellent knowledge of the system in order to make leverage work to your maximum advantage.

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Most of these Forex trading systems are reactive (not proactive!!) by design. Like, if a stock or a commodity acts in a certain way, the system assumes that the stock or a commodity will continue to act that way. It generates this conclusion based on the formulas programmed into the system some �Black Boxes" also compute a large array of indicators in an attempt to increase confidence of an action recommendation. Most mechanical trading systems buy or sell breakouts. The stock market calls these traders momentum players. Their formulas assume a continuation of that movement. Should that movement fail to continue, the system will generate a loss, plus the commission cost.

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